Every fall, we hear the same question: “When are you going to start forecasting?” It often comes as soon as early ski tracks appear on lightly covered, grassy slopes south of Teton Pass. The answer is nuanced and guided by several operational factors.
Each year, the Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center issues two distinct avalanche forecast products. Most seasons begin and end with a General Avalanche Information Bulletin, or “General Bulletin.” It bridges the gap between minimal early- or late-season snow coverage – when access is limited, avalanche hazard is isolated, and daily forecast operations are not yet practical – and the start of full daily forecasting. General Bulletins provide flexible, timely information during periods of low backcountry use and relatively straightforward avalanche conditions, while allowing the forecast center to complete critical preseason preparation.
In the fall, forecast staff are ramping up for the winter and managing a wide range of essential tasks. These include safety and rescue training, field safety and communications, hazmat and wilderness medical refreshers, snow science workshops, and other operational requirements. At the same time, staff are updating the website, repairing weather stations, improving data infrastructure and reporting, and scheduling and delivering education programs. Seasonal employment realities also come into play, as staff transition from summer jobs, relocate to the area, and prepare for the demands of winter.
Western Wyoming, particularly the Tetons, has one of the longest winter seasons in the Lower 48. Thoughtful pacing is critical to sustaining a team through six months of intensive fieldwork, forecasting, and snow and weather analysis. Issuing General Bulletins twice per week, without daily field requirements or 3:30 a.m. wake-ups, allows the crew to ease into the season well trained, rested, and prepared. Last year, the crew issued 14 General Bulletins over a 45-day period between the start and end of the season.
The center’s primary product is the daily, 5-scale Avalanche Forecast or more simply, “the Forecast.” This forecast includes danger ratings by elevation, avalanche problems, a forecast discussion, zone-specific weather tables, and an outlook. Once staff were fully onboarded and weather stations and technical systems were operational, we began issuing daily Avalanche Forecasts on December 4 this year. Prior to that, we published nine General Bulletins over a 36-day period starting in late October. So far, we’ve produced 26 avalanche and weather forecasts in 6 days, many of them with elevated danger as we continue to navigate some of the windiest, warmest and wettest Decembers on record.
As the Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center continues to grow, thanks to the support of the local snow-loving community, we can continue to meet the increasing demand for more comprehensive avalanche information across a broader area. Until then, know that we remain committed to balancing employee safety with the timely delivery of relevant, high-quality information to the recreating public.
-Frank Carus, Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center Director